The New Math of Distribution Windows for Indies

We left MIPCOM 2025 with clarity: indie wins come from the order of your windows, not from betting everything on one platform. Between hallway chats and formal buyer meetings, we heard the same playbook—protect price early, go broad when discovery matters, and keep room for non-exclusive AVOD/FAST. Here’s our plain-English guide to the new math.

“Post-MIPCOM 2025, the smartest strategy isn’t picking a platform—it’s sequencing windows to match your audience, momentum, and cash needs.”

TL;DR: Indies win by sequencing releases to preserve price early and maximize reach later—not by chasing one “perfect” window.

Quick definitions

FAST: Free Ad-Supported TV (live, linear channels with ads).In 2019, an indie thriller I tracked launched with a tiny two-week theatrical run. Critics showed up, the poster got a second life on socials—and then something unexpected happened: after TVOD, the team skipped a long subscription window, went broad on AVOD/FAST, and the film quietly found millions of viewers. The check didn’t come in one lump sum; it arrived as a tail. That’s the new math.

Theatrical: Cinema release.
TVOD: Transactional video-on-demand (digital rental/purchase like Apple/Prime Video Store).
PVOD: Premium TVOD (higher-priced early rentals).
SVOD: Subscription VOD (streamers you pay monthly for).
AVOD: Ad-supported VOD (free with ads).

Today, there isn’t one “right” window. There’s a sequence that matches your audience, your momentum, and your cash needs.

What actually shifted

Viewers hop formats. Price-sensitive audiences discover films on AVOD/FAST; fans with intent will pay early on TVOD/PVOD.
Non-exclusive is normal. Many ad-supported platforms will carry the same film, which compounds reach.
“Event” moments matter. A weekend of critic screenings or a festival slot can power every window downstream.

Takeaway: Don’t pick a single window;
pick the order that preserves price early and maximizes reach later.

Choose your path (3 common patterns)

1) Prestige Glide: Event Theatrical → TVOD → Short SVOD → AVOD/FAST
Use this when you expect reviews, podcasts, and think-pieces. You bank early purchases, grant a subscription pop, then widen.

2) Audience First: Festivals/PR → TVOD (brief) → AVOD/FAST (non-exclusive)
If the film needs discovery more than dollars right now, go broad. Multiple ad-supported outlets create a long tail.

3) Cashflow Now: Micro Theatrical → PVOD → SVOD exclusive → AVOD
If an SVOD check covers your gap, take it—but time-box exclusivity so you still benefit from the ad-supported tail.

A 60-second rule of thumb

If your likely AVOD/FAST earnings over 12 months (based on realistic CPMs and views) beat the subscription offer on the table, delay or shorten the SVOD exclusive. If your PR and fanbase can drive paid behavior, protect TVOD/PVOD first.

Mini case: two indies, two wins

Film A (genre, strong fanbase): Did a 10-day “event” theatrical, then PVOD at a premium price. Fans paid; press stacked. After a short SVOD burst, AVOD kept money trickling in for a year.
Film B (quiet drama, unknown cast): Skipped SVOD. Went wide on AVOD/FAST across multiple platforms; word-of-mouth + algorithmic placement found the audience. The team later licensed a short SVOD window once the film already had heat.

Avoid these two contract traps

Long exclusivity with no upside. If the subscription check doesn’t beat your modeled ad-supported tail, don’t lock up for a year.
Unlimited marketing recoup. Cap P&A recoup and keep audit rights so you actually see overages.

Myth vs. Fact

Myth: “A subscription deal is always the endgame.”
Fact: Sometimes the ad-supported tail is worth more—especially for discovery-driven titles.
Myth: “You must choose one platform.”
Fact: Non-exclusive AVOD/FAST can run in parallel and compound reach.

3 Questions to Pick Your Sequence

Will my audience search for this? (Yes → prioritize TVOD/PVOD early.)
Do I have press or a festival angle? (Yes → add an event window.)
Do I need cash or momentum more? (Cash → SVOD check; Momentum → AVOD/FAST breadth.)

One-Page Planner (free)
Want the calculator that estimates TVOD units, AVOD scenarios, and helps compare to an SVOD offer? Grab the Windowing Math Sheet and plug in your numbers.

Deal Traps to Avoid

Long exclusivity that’s not beating your modeled AVOD/FAST tail.
Unlimited marketing recoup without caps + audit rights.
Missing carve-outs (airlines, EDU, community screens).

One visual to remember

Free one-page planner

Model TVOD/PVOD net, compare an SVOD offer to your AVOD/FAST tail, and map rights/windows.

DOWNLOAD

Skim Box — Download the One-Pager

A single, scannable sheet with logline, comps, budget band, status, and contact—perfect to forward to partners.

Download the One-Pager (PDF)

Closing thought

Indie wins aren’t about guessing the perfect platform; they’re about sequencing windows to match the story you’re telling and the audience you’re courting. Preserve price when intent is highest, then open the floodgates when discovery matters most.

Strategy Consult: Build Your Windowing Plan

In 60 minutes we’ll align goals, choose your window stack, set holdbacks/carve-outs, and leave you with a one-page action plan.

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